Assessment of models predicting anthropogenic interventions and climate variability on surface runoff of the Lower Zab River     

R.?Mohammed  M.?ScholzEmail author  M.?A.?Nanekely  Y.?Mokhtari 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2018,32(1):223-240

Multi-regression, hydrologic sensitivity and hydrologic model simulations were applied to quantify the climate change and anthropogenic intervention impacts on the Lower Zab River basin (LZRB). The Pettitt, precipitation-runoff double cumulative curve (PR-DCC) and Mann–Kendall methods were used for the change points and significant trend analyses in the annual streamflow. The long-term runoff series from 1979 to 2013 was first divided into two main periods: a baseline (1979–1997) and an anthropogenic intervention period (1998–2013). The findings show that the mean annual streamflow changes were consistent using the three methods. In addition, climate variability was the main driver, which led to streamflow reduction with contributions of 66–97% during 2003–2013, whereas anthropogenic interventions caused reductions of 4–34%. Moreover, to enhance the multi-model combination concept and explore the simple average method (SAM), Hydrologiska Byrans Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV), Génie Rural a Daily 4 parameters (GR4J) and Medbasin models have been successfully applied.  相似文献   

Active fault database of Turkey     

Ömer Emre  Tamer Y. Duman  Selim Özalp  Fuat Şaroğlu  Şeyda Olgun  Hasan Elmacı  Tolga Çan 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2018,16(8):3229-3275

We have updated the active fault map of Turkey and built its database within GIS environment. In the study, four distinct active fault types, classified according to geochronological criteria and character, were delineated on the 1:25,000 base map of Turkey. 176 fault segments not included in the former active fault map of Turkey, have been identified and documented. We infer that there are 485 single fault segments which are substantially potential seismic sources. In total 1964 active-fault base-maps were transferred into the GIS environment. Each fault was attributed with key parameters such as class, activity, type, length, trend, and attitude of fault plane. The fault parameters are also supported by slip-rate and seismogenic depth inferred from available GPS, seismological and paleoseismological data. Additionally, expected maximum magnitude for each fault segment was estimated by empirical equations. We present the database in a parametric catalogue of fault segments to be of interest in earthquake engineering and seismotectonics. The study provides essential geological and seismological inputs for regional seismic hazard analysis of all over Turkey and its vicinity.  相似文献   

An improved earthquake catalogue (<Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis> ≥ 4.0) for Turkey and its near vicinity (1900–2012)     

F. Tuba Kadirioğlu  Recai F. Kartal  Tuğbay Kılıç  Doğan Kalafat  Tamer Y. Duman  Tuba Eroğlu Azak  Selim Özalp  Ömer Emre 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2018,16(8):3317-3338

Many catalogues, agency reports and research articles have been published on seismicity of Turkey and its surrounding since 1950s. Given existing magnitude heterogeneity, erroneous information on epicentral location, event date and time, this past published data however is far from fulfilling the required standards. Paucity of a standardized format in the available catalogues have reinforced the need for a refined and updated catalogue for earthquake related hazard and risk studies. During this study, ~37,000 earthquakes and related parametric data were evaluated by utilizing more than 41 published studies and, an integrated database was prepared in order to analyse all parameters acquired from the catalogues and references for each event. Within the scope of this study, the epicentral locations of M ≥ 5.0 events were firstly reappraised based on the updated Active Fault Map of Turkey. An improved catalogue of 12.674 events for the period 1900–2012 was as a result recompiled for the region between 32–45N° and 23–48E° by analyzing in detail accuracy of all seismological parameters available for each event. The events consist of M ≥ 4.0 are reported in several magnitude scales (e.g. moment magnitude, M_w; surface wave magnitude, M_S; body-wave magnitude m_b; local magnitude M_L and duration magnitude M_d) whereas the maximum focal depth reaches up to 225-km. In order to provide homogenous data, the improved catalogue is unified in terms of M_w. Fore-and aftershocks were also removed from the catalogue and completeness analyses were performed both separately for various tectonic sources and as a whole for the study region of interest. Thus, the prepared homogenous and declustered catalogue consisting of 6573 events provides the basis for a reliable input to the seismic hazard assessment studies for Turkey and its surrounding areas.  相似文献   

Erratum to: Polymorphic phase transition in Superhydrous Phase B     

M. Koch-Müller  P. Dera  Y. Fei  H. Hellwig  Z. Liu  J. Van Orman  R. Wirth 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》2014,41(9):725-725

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Hydrologic responses to land cover change: the case of Jedeb mesoscale catchment,Abay/Upper Blue Nile basin,Ethiopia          下载免费PDF全文

S. Tekleab  Y. Mohamed  S. Uhlenbrook  J. Wenninger 《水文研究》2014,28(20):5149-5161

The objective of this study was to quantify the impacts of land use/land cover (LULC) change on the hydrology of the Jedeb, an agricultural dominated mesoscale catchment, in the Abay/Upper Blue Nile basin, Ethiopia. Two methods have been used. First, the trends of certain daily flow variability parameters were evaluated to detect statistical significance of the change of the hydrologic response. Second, a conceptual monthly hydrological model was used to detect changes in the model parameters over different periods to infer LULC change. The results from the statistical analysis of the daily flows between 1973 and 2010 reveal a significant change in the response of the catchment. Peak flow is enhanced, i.e. response appears to be flashier. There is a significant increase in the rise and fall rates of the flow hydrograph, as well as the number of low‐flow pulses below a threshold level. The discharge pulses show a declining duration with time. The model result depicts a change in model parameters over different periods, which could be attributed to an LULC change. The model parameters representing soil moisture conditions indicated a gradual decreasing trend, implying limited storage capacity likely attributed to increasing agricultural farming practices in the catchment. This resulted in more surface runoff and less infiltration into the soil layers. The results of the monthly flow duration curve analysis indicated large changes of the flow regime. The high flow has increased by 45% between the 1990s and 2000s, whereas the reduction in low flows was larger: a 15% decrease between 1970s and 1980s, 39% between 1980s and 1990s and up to 71% between 1990s and 2000s. These results, could guide informed catchment management practices to reduce surface runoff and augment soil moisture level in the Jedeb catchment. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Reconstruction of the springtime East Asian Subtropical Jet and Western Pacific pattern from a millennial-length Taiwanese tree-ring chronology     

W. E. Wright  B. T. Guan  Y.-H. Tseng  E. R. Cook  K.-Y. Wei  S.-T. Chang 《Climate Dynamics》2015,44(5-6):1645-1659

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Semi-analytical and Numerical Studies on the Flattened Brazilian Splitting Test Used for Measuring the Indirect Tensile Strength of Rocks     

Y. G. Huang  L. G. Wang  Y. L. Lu  J. R. Chen  J. H. Zhang 《Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering》2015,48(5):1849-1866

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Estimation of flood damage functions for river basin planning: a case study in Bangladesh     

Y. C. Ethan Yang  Patrick A. Ray  Casey M. Brown  Abedalrazq F. Khalil  Winston H. Yu 《Natural Hazards》2015,75(3):2773-2791

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Earthquake hazard analysis for East Anatolian Fault Zone,Turkey     

Erdem Bayrak  Şeyda Yılmaz  Mustafa Softa  Tuğba Türker  Yusuf Bayrak 《Natural Hazards》2015,76(2):1063-1077

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Spectroscopic Variability of Supergiant Star HD14134, B3Ia     

Y. M. Maharramov 《Journal of Astrophysics and Astronomy》2017,38(2):20

Profile variations in the \(\hbox {H}\alpha \) and \(\hbox {H}\beta \) lines in the spectra of the star HD14134 are investigated using observations carried out in 2013–2014 and 2016 with the 2-m telescope at the Shamakhy Astrophysical Observatory. The absorption and emission components of the \(\hbox {H}\alpha \) line are found to disappear on some observational days, and two of the spectrograms exhibit inverse P-Cyg profile of \(\hbox {H}\alpha \). It was revealed that when the \(\hbox {H}\alpha \) line disappeared or an inversion of the P-Cyg-type profile is observed in the spectra, the \(\hbox {H}\beta \) line is displaced to the longer wavelengths, but no synchronous variabilities were observed in other spectral lines (CII \( \lambda \) 6578.05 Å, \( \lambda \) 6582.88 Å  and HeI \( \lambda \) 5875.72 Å) formed in deeper layers of the stellar atmosphere. In addition, the profiles of the \(\hbox {H}\alpha \) and \(\hbox {H}\beta \) lines have been analysed, as well as their relations with possible expansion, contraction and mixed conditions of the atmosphere of HD14134. We suggest that the observational evidence for the non-stationary atmosphere of HD14134 can be associated in part with the non-spherical stellar wind.  相似文献